What do you think?

[ZombieBunny]

Do you think anime cels are a good investment? How about anime collectables? Is it possible 20 years down the road, people will still care about major anime shows as they do now?

Do you even plan on selling in the future?


I know we can't tell what the future market will be but I was just wondering everyones thoughts.

Thanks

[genomexec]

I'm skeptical about cels as an investment in general. But I bet some particularly influential series' cels will hold up in terms of value and slowly increase over time.

Ghibli movies, Akira, Evangelion, maybe GitS...
Maybe some high-end DBZ. Anything really important.

[Captain Haddock]

I'd second that Genomexec, anything people stand a chance of remembering a couple of decades down the line is what your after if your looking at investment.

[Keropi]

Only the most popular shows from this time are going to be remembered by most anime fans twenty years from now. Most fans twenty years from now will be more concerned shows from their own time period. I mean...what shows are the most popular with anime fans now? How well are the anime that aired in 1990 known now by the general anime population?

It's true that anime is much more popular now than it was in 1990. There will be more people that remember shows from this time period because there are more fans around to remember them. But you can get a general idea of how things will be in the future by looking at how people view older shows NOW. There is a very noticeable drop off in anime voting polls even for shows that came out only 6-8 years ago.

Obviously the shows viewed by more people will be the ones more likely to be remembered by more people later on. But generally speaking, the number of fans of a show decreases as time goes on. The fans that stay around for the same show are more fervent and dedicated, but they're also more likely to already have artwork from the show. They're more likely to be picky since they are more likely to have artwork from it. So guessing at what will go up and what types of shots people want isn't easy (unless it's Ghiblli). It was easier back the the stuff was cheap.

[iceman57]

Do you think anime cels are a good investment? How about anime collectables? Is it possible 20 years down the road, people will still care about major anime shows as they do now?
Do you even plan on selling in the future?
I know we can't tell what the future market will be but I was just wondering everyones thoughts.

Thanks

We can easily work on expectations and various scenarios.
I confirm that Anime cels and anime raw material in general actually offers on long term expectation (20 years) a render equal to life insurance.
Added value is that artworks are not taxed by IRS, not affected by law and rules evolutions, and avoid stock exchange krach damages.

I'm skeptical about cels as an investment in general. But I bet some particularly influential series' cels will hold up in terms of value and slowly increase over time.

Ghibli movies, Akira, Evangelion, maybe GitS...
Maybe some high-end DBZ. Anything really important.

Indeed, I already established demographic curves for thesis work that follow your way of analyse and allow to announce what are high potential items.

I'd second that Genomexec, anything people stand a chance of remembering a couple of decades down the line is what your after if your looking at investment.

Need to be balanced with the country of origin, as a broadcast in a country affects the popularity. There are "local" anime, "continental" anime and "global" anime.
To have the best forecasts you need to adapt the art to the audience (ie. sell Fist Of the north star in the US is hard, while in Italy you may have the highest render).

Only the most popular shows from this time are going to be remembered by most anime fans twenty years from now. Most fans twenty years from now will be more concerned shows from their own time period. I mean...what shows are the most popular with anime fans now? How well are the anime that aired in 1990 known now by the general anime population?

Exactly, there are generationnal changes that affects demand (and consequently prices) but there are multigenerationnal

But you can get a general idea of how things will be in the future by looking at how people view older shows NOW. There is a very noticeable drop off in anime voting polls even for shows that came out only 6-8 years ago.

This is what I consider as being golden age, and even in decades there would be "classics" that any anime fan or 20th century art student would continue watch, especially short series.

But generally speaking, the number of fans of a show decreases as time goes on. The fans that stay around for the same show are more fervent and dedicated, but they're also more likely to already have artwork from the show.

Broadcast offer exploded, and diluted the availability of fans (TV + DVD + WEB) while in the 80s the main media supply was TV. I also studied what I name the "fetichism" attachment to a tactile media (DVD, CD...) compared to download and there is a confirmation of generationnal change, consequently less demand to own the raw animation art that'll drop prices in the future.

[Strictly-Dragonball]

Obviously Ghibli and stuff like that will command prices more and more like Disney with each passing year, but I do think primo and rare DBZ will get very expensive again.

For example look at Dragonball Kai which is DBZ released for a new generation. I think the fact that was made at all shows the series is timeless all these years after it's original end and is one of the gold standard anime in terms of popularity that will be remembered years from now.

[iceman57]

Obviously Ghibli and stuff like that will command prices more and more like Disney with each passing year, but I do think primo and rare DBZ will get very expensive again.

For example look at Dragonball Kai which is DBZ released for a new generation. I think the fact that was made at all shows the series is timeless all these years after it's original end and is one of the gold standard anime in terms of popularity that will be remembered years from now.

Problem with Ghibli is not the fact that will reach Disney's prices, but issue is buying price and render. Like going to a horse run and betting on favorite, get your 1.5 to 1 money and go home. I prefer work to identify the 10 to 1 quotation horses that will offer a mix between render and risk

About Dragon Ball, whenever they totally reviewed the series, the KAI era maintain the broadcast and consequently the existence of the "Dragon Ball" brand. On long term this is crucial in order to maintain a permanent flow of demand arriving on auction market.

[Sky Rat]

I pretty much agree with everyone else.

I haven't sold a ton of cels, but most things I've sold I sold at a loss, because no one seemed interested in paying what I did, and I eventually decided I'd rather free up the space in my books than wait out a return on my original investment. The only cels I've actually made a profit off of were ones I got ridiculously cheap from the Mandarake bargain bin...and in that case it was a profit margin of $8 turning into $30 over say...5 years or something. Nothing amazing or exponential. Most of my cels I bought without too much regard to price because something about them artistically called to to me...but not everyone else shares that emotional reaction and it can be hard to find someone else who wants something for the same price you were willing to pay, let alone for more.

I think there are a handful of series that will remain classics and the value will steady increase. But most series will go down in popularity as new things come out.

Collectables I think might work as a short term investment...maybe 10 years after a show is made some items will be rare and there will be enough fans left around that some of them will pay well for it.... but the thing is most shows have a TON of collectables, its rather hard to guess which things will be the sought after items in the future. For every item that turns into a desirable collectable there will be dozens of things that remain common and no one cares about. If you are only buying for the collectability factor you'll probably end up with a huge amount of useless clutter you can't resell. I pay pretty close attention to the market for collectables from my own show I personally focus on (which is over 10 years old at this point)...and a few items have gone up in value to an almost obscene amount...but I also happen to know there's usually about 4 very specific people fighting for them when they appear in auctions and that is jacking the prices up. Once that small group of diehard fans dissipates the value will probably plummet again. If you're looking for collectables to use as investments though, I'd recommend focusing on items that can be worn, like official cosplay items, jewelry, sunglasses, etc. Or anything that has artwork on it that isn't re-printed in an official art book or other common source.

[Strictly-Dragonball]

Completely agree with Iceman about DB Kai. That's excaxtly why I think demand for the good cels will go up with a whole new army of future fans seeing DBZ for the first time today.

The fact that all the cels were sold long ago means they aren't as easy to find anymore. Demand may spike and the supply isn't there like it was years ago.

The problem with current anime shows is like it's already been said they soon die out. With cel collecting, people seem to spend high amounts of money on essentially what's just popular at the minute then a new cool show is done and people look for any production materials from that etc...

All this does is drive prices up to rediculous amounts that nobody will pay a fraction of in years to come because the show wasn't as big a hit or considered classic to be remembered for any length of time.

That's why I think DBZ has a good chance of appreciating because people forget it already is very old and still popular. It's a multi-billion dollar franchise and things like video games are churned out it seems each year and the reason for all the sequels and constant supply of DB games is because they always sell.

Things like that demonstrate the longevity of the series so I think the cels will eventually become very rare and valuable.

[Belldandy16]

from my own personal experience, no "collectable" is a good investment whatsoever. Youre better off with the stock market.

[cutiebunny]

Yeah, I agree with everyone else. If the show was very popular in the US, the chances of it having a market 20 or 30 years down the road is high. I would think that Pokemon artwork would be very popular, as well as Sailormoon, Dragonball, Inuyasha, Naruto, Bleach, Death Note, etc.

I would expect the same situation in other countries as well - animation artwork from shows that were popular there will be in demand as those that saw it as children grow older.

If all you want to collect is artwork that will sell high in the future, then, it's best you stick with the very popular titles. In some cases, it doesn't matter how crappy the item is - if it has a very popular character, there will be someone around that will drop serious cash on it. The collectible market is an odd one, and sometimes it's the most inane thing that collectors really want.

I'll admit that, if I'm deciding whether or not to buy something, sometimes the potential resale value is important to me. I'll be more likely to go for something if I know that there are lots of other fans rather than an anime that only caters to a handful of people.

[iceman57]

ABOUT HOW TO BUY FOR RESELL :

I haven't sold a ton of cels, but most things I've sold I sold at a loss, because no one seemed interested in paying what I did, and I eventually decided I'd rather free up the space in my books than wait out a return on my original investment.

Nice one, I'll add a small variation, main problem of anime market is main supply through auctions websites. Consequently the easier way to reduce spendings is direct buying to collector being in the market for some years.
As gallery rationalization requires approximatively 2 years of collecting (year 1 supply chain, year 2 collect, year 3 downsizing), and as BWA events happen every quarter, best it to connect collectors being in the cels/sketches for more than two years just before a BWA event.

The only cels I've actually made a profit off of were ones I got ridiculously cheap from the Mandarake bargain bin...and in that case it was a profit margin of $8 turning into $30 over say...5 years or something. Nothing amazing or exponential.

from my own personal experience, no "collectable" is a good investment whatsoever. Youre better off with the stock market.

Bulk prices always carry good surprises.

Year 1 : $8
Year 2 : $11,2 +40%
Year 3 : $15,68 +40%
Year 4 : $21,95 +40%
Year 5 : $30,73 +40%

Compared to life insurance (3% > result $18.85 on 30 years) or a bloqued account (6% > result $10.1 on 5 years), cels are definitively a good deal.
Of course totally agree with Belldandy16 that this is less than stock market capacity, but a yearly 40% for a 0 risk item with non existing taxes nor laws nor have to face stock market Krach, well, I'm in

ABOUT CEL BUSINESS CUSTOMER' DEMAND :

I think there are a handful of series that will remain classics and the value will steady increase.

Indeed and actual demographics offer us long term +3% a year on cel market. You've to take in consideration that as we're discussing about long term and not short term investment, you may consequently not benefit of your arts (by benefit I mean high benefits) while your children will be able to.

If the show was very popular in the US, the chances of it having a market 20 or 30 years down the road is high...
... I would expect the same situation in other countries as well - animation artwork from shows that were popular there will be in demand as those that saw it as children grow older.

The native english US/UK rules art market for centuries. China market growing and slowly reaching UK but in the other hand their past occupation by Japan created a repulsive effect to Japanese art, concentrating on Chinese art and consequently I don't think anime would be a good deal in China.
An easy trick is to buy art in a country were it is not popular (generally not broadcasted) and to move it to a place where sell price would be high.

but the thing is most shows have a TON of collectables, its rather hard to guess which things will be the sought after items in the future. For every item that turns into a desirable collectable there will be dozens of things that remain common and no one cares about.

Anime cel market on a monthly basis only represent less than 1% of anime fans, cels are defenitively not a good deal for turnover compare to figures (approx. a 10x gap).
Note (refering to another thread) that if you collect on a long term way, you need to preserve / restore / conserve arts to not see their price go down.

Completely agree with Iceman about DB Kai. That's excaxtly why I think demand for the good cels will go up with a whole new army of future fans seeing DBZ for the first time today.

Well, I may admit that I do more, I lobby to broadcast some TV series where I own cels/sketches

...I think DBZ has a good chance of appreciating because people forget it already is very old and still popular...
Things like that demonstrate the longevity of the series so I think the cels will eventually become very rare and valuable.

Confirmed by my thesis work statistics, but focus on high end item or high end series TV/OAV/cinema only is a boobytrap. I'm currently studying this aspect crossed with long term customer expectations.

[MyBaby]

No. Purchase for your own pleasure. Enjoy the cel. Don't stick it in a dark, dry place.

How do I get the "newbie" under my user name changed to something else?

[teggacat]

How do I get the "newbie" under my user name changed to something else?

the "newbie" will change automatically after a certain
number of posts made here

[duotrouble]

I don't purchase cels for resale value. I purchase cels I want. I've sold many at a loss, many for about the same amount and some for profit but I look at each one as it's a used item. So as long as I get back something when selling, I'm usually happy. I wouldn't "invest" in them though.

How do I get the "newbie" under my user name changed to something else?

Here ya go!

0 - Newbie
25 - Anime Geek
50 - Otaku - Fanatic
75 - Eiketsu - Mastermind
125 - Juuyaku - Executive
150 - Eiyuu - Hero
200 - Kamisama - God
275 - Kishin - Fierce God
600 - Kuwabarakuwabara - Oh My God!
900 - Senpai - Elder
1500 - Yosutebito - Hermit
2000 - Chiteijin - Cave Dweller
2500 - Taiyo - Sun Fearer
3000 - Himajin - Get A Life

Custom titles come after that.