How do long-timers interpret these membership statistics?

[sensei]

I'm doing some bean counting to get a sense of the trajectory of this forum's membership. I expected to see a fairly smooth pattern, with strong interest and growth at the start, followed by a steady plateauing of membership as the community grows to an optimum size and early joiners shift interests and depart for other activities.

But the statistics show something more complex. I have some ideas, but I thought I'd toss them out to see how people who have been more involved in Beta and for a longer time would react.

New member registrations:

The first four years show a spiky but overall stable rate of around 14 new members per month. Then very abruptly, at the end of 2006, the rate dives to 4-5 new members per month. That rate stays stable through 2007-09, until about a year ago, then it seems to drop again, to about 2 new members a month. No transition among the periods, just two sudden dips.

* What happened at the end of 2006 that impacted the membership rate so suddenly and dramatically?
* Do others feel that the pool of new members is once again narrowing rapidly? Reasons?

Old-time member retention:

I tracked the first 100 members to register, to see how long they generally remained active on Beta. It was no surprise to see a lot of attrition in the first two years: 52% of this group had departed for good by the end of 2004. (That's actually much less than what I expected to see.) Of the remaining members, relatively few (about 4%/year) dropped out in each of the years 2005-08.

Then the rate more than doubles unexpectedly in 2009 and 2010, with about a third of the remaining "old-time member" group ceasing activity each year.

* Is this increased attrition rate connected with anything in particular in the cel-collector's community? Or do people's interests naturally evolve in eight years or so? (Plus younger people graduating, taking jobs, raising families, etc.)
* Or are some of the "old-timers" (like Soda, who's in my database as a drop-out, though now he's obviously not one) just taking longer and longer vacations but still active on some level?

What think?

[Shampoo]

... Then very abruptly, at the end of 2006, the rate dives to 4-5 new members per month. That rate stays stable through 2007-09, until about a year ago, then it seems to drop again, to about 2 new members a month. No transition among the periods, just two sudden dips.

* What happened at the end of 2006 that impacted the membership rate so suddenly and dramatically?
* Do others feel that the pool of new members is once again narrowing rapidly? Reasons?

Personally, I dropped out around 2006 for a full year
and a half mostly because life got in the way. Also
because my friends (all registered 2002 or 2003,) stopped
visiting/posting.
The newbies were conjuring up old threads because to them
it was a new topic-- so a lot of the older peeps didn't feel
a need to reply to the topic or stepped aside for others
to voice their say.
Maybe the same is happening now. Another point to
bring up is a very crappy global economy, which means
less quantitative purchases; sometimes this can lower interest too.
You forget how good it feels to buy that A1 END or genga
set when there isn't any to be had or available for purchase.

...
Then the rate more than doubles unexpectedly in 2009 and 2010, with about a third of the remaining "old-time member" group ceasing activity each year.

* Is this increased attrition rate connected with anything in particular in the cel-collector's community? Or do people's interests naturally evolve in eight years or so? (Plus younger people graduating, taking jobs, raising families, etc.)
* Or are some of the "old-timers" (like Soda, who's in my database as a drop-out, though now he's obviously not one) just taking longer and longer vacations but still active on some level?

1) Same topics same discussions get boring once you've
been here 6 yrs +. You can only reply so many times to
the 'stuck cel-help me' and 'where can I find X series'
before you start to sound like a broken record.

2) Old friends not chiming in means your less likely to
visit or post. I know this is true for me personally.

3) Slow supply of cels and lack of cg sketches mean
same items are just rotating around collectors. So
no one posts their gallery finds as frequently anymore
and if they do, they most likely have already been featured
several months/yrs before by the seller.

4) When you've been around a forum so long, you find
its not as exciting as it once was when it had its new car scent.
You get use to a once-a-week/month routine and so only
check when an interesting topic pops up.

These are my 2 cents on the questions.

[ReiTheJelly]

It doesn't help the growth rate any that this forum requires an invitation from an existing member to join.

As for the drop-out rates...I think people just move on over time. 9 years is a long time and can be filled with major life changes: college, buying a home, getting married/divorced, serious illness/accident, etc.


I have noticed that while a number of older members are still active in discussions, they are no longer active in collecting.


And like Shampoo said, it gets a bit dull after awhile with the same topics being recycled endlessly.

[JWR]

I would make a guess that there could be a couple of factors that account for the up and down nature of the Beta membership you detail.

I would expect that a lot of the members who join and later drop out were younger college age. As their lives unfold their priorities change. Moving from School life to the business world, for some they get married and start a family of their own. For others I would expect that they can get bored with the hobby and move on to collect something else.

I know through my personal collecting that my tastes have changed over the years. I have over time collected Baseball cards, watches, hockey sticks and books from favorite authors. What I think has kept me around this hobby and Beta is that my wife and I have developed friendships with many of the people here we have met in person.

[iceman57]

New member registrations:
[...]
* What happened at the end of 2006 that impacted the membership rate so suddenly and dramatically?

> Generationnal change from a physical attraction to raw material to a more virtualised content, with less possessive desire.
> Multiplication of available collectibles on various markets.

* Do others feel that the pool of new members is once again narrowing rapidly? Reasons?

> The internet from the early 2Ks ain't no more the same a decade after, with now a long list of anime websites/forums available and splitting the global amount of internet users.

Old-time member retention:
[...]
* Is this increased attrition rate connected with anything in particular in the cel-collector's community? Or do people's interests naturally evolve in eight years or so? (Plus younger people graduating, taking jobs, raising families, etc.)

> Collection average is 2 years, nothing less nothing more, people overpassing this duration can be consider as long time collectors, over 10 years this falls to 0.5% of population.
> Focus on average age of 25 wich is the key point between university and professionnal life.
> Recent anime are non cel made, while title is "anime beta, a forum for cel collectors".

[benten]

The first four years show a spiky but overall stable rate of around 14 new members per month. Then very abruptly, at the end of 2006, the rate dives to 4-5 new members per month. That rate stays stable through 2007-09, until about a year ago, then it seems to drop again, to about 2 new members a month. No transition among the periods, just two sudden dips.

It is quite a surprising result. I looked back and noted that May 06, 2008 was when Deadly Whispers announced that Beta registration would be changed to Invitation Only after a period in which registration was disabled completely. It is amazing that this event didn't produce a dramatic change in the registration rate.

[zerospace]

I largely concur with Rei's thoughts.

To address your questions more directly with some random thoughts of mine after reading your posts on the subject:

1) What happened at the end of 2006? Well, around that time was the start of the current economic downturn, no? Perhaps the decrease in funds for potential new members (who also often seem to be quite young, though perhaps your research will show otherwise) was enough to keep large groups of newbies from signing up?

2) Is the pool of new members decreasing again? Sorry for the poor paraphrasing here. I hadn't really thought about this, but maybe the pool is decreasing. Registrations and overall participation in the online communities do seem to be lower than they were back in 2005/2006, but I have to imagine that there may be different things keeping new, younger folks from getting into the cel collecting hobby (perhaps a lack of jobs and therefore money in the pocket could do it? Or maybe a lack of interest? Maybe there hasn't been any great large-audience-reaching new anime to catch the attention of a large group?)

Old-time member retention:

1) Is the attrition rate due to anything in particular? I might make the argument that the rate of attrition is due not just to the fact that maybe the "attention span" of adults' interests is approximately 8 years (or maybe we should call that a half-life? hahaha), but I would say that you may also need to take into account things like:

a) Average age of these members -- what point are they at in their lives? I would think that young adults stand a much greater chance of dropping out of the hobby/community to deal with larger life goals like children, etc.

b) Personality quirks. Are these members prone to dropping hobbies as quickly as they take them up?

c) A combination of a & b. Does age affect loyalty to hobbies? Are more mature members more likely to remain active for a longer period of time? Do the more mature members tend to be older?

2) Do old-timers take longer and longer vacations? Well, since I'm sorta an old-timer around here now: I know I've been less active lately, myself. This has been due in large part to a lack of new artwork that interests me. Also, the rehashing of old subjects is definitely tiresome.

Just my two yen!

[eyes0nme19]

New member registrations:

* What happened at the end of 2006 that impacted the membership rate so suddenly and dramatically?
* Do others feel that the pool of new members is once again narrowing rapidly? Reasons?

I can't really answer the questions pertaining to the long-term members, however I do have some input about the narrowing pool of new members based on my own experience.

Staring out as a newbie collector over a yr ago, I didn't even know this forum existed. What brought me into the hobby was rubberslug actually. Searching the net, I came across a bunch of long-time collectors who had huge rs cel collections. Through them I found the inspiration to create my own rs gallery. It took me a long 3 months to discover anime-beta. And that was only because I was searching for cels to buy and the sale threads here popped up in my search. From there, a lot of browsing and reading a ton of old threads did I finally figure out there was a whole cel community here! But it didn't just stop there, I couldn't figure out how to register! Took me even more time to read older threads on how to register and get an invitation. So yeah...I guess what I'm saying is maybe the difficulty of getting into this forum is the major reason why there is such a small pool of new members entering each month

[cutiebunny]

In addition to Benten's comment regarding the decline in AB registration since 2008, I'd also like to point out that, IMO, the younger sect, as well as most US anime fans, are relatively clueless when it comes to the existence of production artwork.

I've been to several conventions where, while sitting around waiting for panels and autograph sessions, I've gotten into talking with people about what they spend their money on, anime wise. When I mention that I collect production artwork, the first comment generally is "That stuff is for sale?!". I think that anime fans need to be better educated on this subject, especially as it will be the younger generations who will likely have more of an interest in preserving CG materials than us ol' timers. Most US fans seem to think that the pinnacle of collecting is the premium limited edition US DVD package. They don't realize that the artwork that was used to create that package is likely (or will be) for sale.

I think that the younger set could actively be recruited into the hobby by exposing them at conventions. Even if you don't have the time, energy or know how to run a panel, you can still introduce people to it while in line or donate some extra cels to the charity auctions. I like to give my extra or imperfect shikishi boards to teens/young adults and give them a little info about shikishi collecting. A lot of the teens/young adults have never heard of a shikishi.

[blueheaven]

I can tell you that when I joined...ALMOST NINE YEARS AGO?!!! Damn, has it been that long. Anyway, when I joined I was in college pursuing my degree. By 2006, my career was hitting its stride and I was getting my masters. I started becoming too busy to visit the site. I was also deterred by some people on this board who seemed to want to make life a living hell for me by stirring up lies and drama. I have just recently dipped my toes back in the water because I miss the folks here who I considered friends. Since many of them are not on FB, I decided to give Beta another try. I am hoping to get back into cels again, but pickings are slim these days. I am definitely going to be at AX this year, since good friends of mine live in LA and loved going last year.

[sensei]

It is quite a surprising result. I looked back and noted that May 06, 2008 was when Deadly Whispers announced that Beta registration would be changed to Invitation Only after a period in which registration was disabled completely. It is amazing that this event didn't produce a dramatic change in the registration rate.

Details:

Oct 06 to April 07: 29
April 07 to Oct 07: 29
Oct 07 to April 08: 19
[Shift to Invitation Only: May 08]
April 08 to Oct 08: 19
Oct 08 to April 09: 30
April 09 to Oct 09: 27
Oct 09 to April 10: 33
April 10 to Oct 10: 13
Oct 10 to Feb 11: 9

As you can see, the shift to Invitations Only caused, if anything, only a momentary dip. The general rate before and after was close to identical. The drop in the last two periods is, I think, troubling.

[graymouser]

A lot of interesting observations have been mentioned. One thing that may have had an effect on membership rate may have been the death of Animanga.

When Anime Beta was first created, there was already a fairly active cel forum online, Animanga. Animanga already had a large, though less formal, membership and a huge cel ring. Once Yann stopped moderating due to his work schedule, many people started to drift over to Beta. The lack of moderation also led to a large increase in pop-up ads appearing on Animanga. I think that a lot of the early new members were people shifting from Animanga. These early members were not all new collectors. Many had already been collecting for many years. Once Animanga died as an active forum and the shifting completed, new membership would only come from new collectors or lurkers becoming more public. I admit the timing may not be quite right though. If I remember correctly, Animanga was pretty active until the end of 2004/beginning of 2005. By 2006 Yann had only posted a few times and in 2007, he posted only twice.

As for the second drop in 2009, it was probably caused by the poor economy. The less people have to spend, the less likely they are to start a new hobby as potentially expensive as collecting production art. This would have the affected the number of new members signing up.

Anyways, just my 2 cents worth.

[sensei]

Once Animanga died as an active forum and the shifting completed, new membership would only come from new collectors or lurkers becoming more public. I admit the timing may not be quite right though. If I remember correctly, Animanga was pretty active until the end of 2004/beginning of 2005.

Interesting point. I've already observed that the peak time for new registrations was not the first months of AB but from October 05 to April 06, when 198 new members joined. It would make sense that they (like me) had previously been active on Animanga and found the greater flexibility of this forum (and the relative lack of malicious spyware and annoying advertisements) a welcome relief.

[Gonzai]

Couldn't tell you. I missed the Old Timer's list by 9.
BH, you are one of the old timers, though. I imagine
people move on and start living their real lives. As
for the rest of us, apparently we have nothing better
to do with our time.

[kizu]

I've not been around too long, I joined this forum in late 2006 and really enjoyed reading the info over animanga. It seemed that there was a lot of drama in the animanga forum but I guess drama erupts from time to time in AB as well since I still remember quite a few members that I enjoyed speaking about collecting to suddenly became inactive. There's still a few people I talk to from time to time here but overall my participation in AB has declined. Probably because there's just not as much people here anymore that share my collecting interest and also because life has changed for me. Unlike others though who has stopped collecting but are still around, I'm around from time to time because I still actively collect. AB is still the best forum to try to acquire artwork, other forums just doesn't generate the type of traffic/activity so visiting AB from time to time is an essential thing for my collecting. As for the general decline, I don't think it's the lack of artwork... There are tons of things to collect especially from newer shows. Nor do I think it's the money, there were many collectors back in the day who also didn't have much funds but they stuck around and collected what they could afford. I don't know maybe because "fandom" in general is very disconnected and segmented now so collecting isn't as exciting. Plus in general I think anime in the US is in a decline. I still remember prior to 2003, anime fandom activity was just buzzing both on and off the internet.