thoughts on prices in a weak economy??

[figital]

i was wondering what long time collectors make of the crazy swings in prices that have taken place over the years?

as someone who collected most of my cels in the mid 2000s, when i lived in japan, i was lucky and bought at a time when i felt the economy couldn't really get any worse. but it did. and now it seems like there's a huge amount of materials, especially in japan, that are at lower than historical prices. and the ones that are wildly priced often seem to sit and not sell.

but i still see people trying to sell items for insane prices. on yahoo japan, it shocks and boggles the mind. i see things that are thousands of dollars go round and round and round with no bids but no price reduction. or the best, like i read in another thread, you watch an item for months and they raise the price instead of lowering it. LOL.

i think the biggest issue that affects me in my day to day search is collectors who are selling their items which they bought at the highest peaks of prices and still trying to get that money back. that's pretty tough. one seller recently told me they were already taking around a 50 percent bath on many of the items they were selling and the stuff was STILL overpriced.

being a massive cheapskate with decent self control has always been a saving grace in my various collecting endeavours! but i wonder how other people are dealing with the fact that items they bought in a high market might eventually, for whatever reason, be sold in a softer market than that item was purchased in?

i know certain items from certain series will always have higher prices and more demand, but i also wonder what some of your personal thoughts are on weathering the storm of changing economies when you've collected over many years.

[Drac of the Sharp Smiles]

You deal with it by accepting the facts. The facts are it doesn't matter in the slightest what you paid for something. It is tough to hear it, but no one cares. Collectibles are NOT investments.

When you're talking about something that is a "collectible" (and I do classify cels/genga in that category) there is no actual value aside from the value of the materials from which the item is made. So, for example, if you collected PretendBrandXYZ silver figurines and they were really popular, you might pay more for them than the value of the amount of silver used to make them. However, the bottom line is that they're not actually worth more than the value of that silver and if the interest in them suddenly wanes, you might only be able to sell them to someone who just wants to melt them down for the materials.

Our situation here is much more precarious than my example because cels/genga aren't made with any materials that have commercial value. Sure, if you have enough straight paper -- and you would need a LOT -- you might be able to sell it to someone looking for paper to recycle but the amount that you would get selling it that way wouldn't even be worth mentioning on a per-sheet level. Thus, our cels/genga are essentially worth nothing, zip, nada, zero.

This means our collections are only "worth" whatever someone is willing to pay for them. Human interests flux wildly, but generally it seems to be towards things that are newer. You'll find holdouts (like myself) who still hunt for older things, but most people want the newest thing out. This means that, with few exceptions, most of our collections are going to inevitably decrease in value over time as the shows they come from age out of people's interest range. I have occasionally considered looking through my collection for things I might want to sell, but I haven't because the pittance I would get for what I would be willing to sell wouldn't even make it worth my time. I have no problem admitting that. These things are NOT currently worth what I paid for them.

As long as you're willing to accept ALL THAT.... you're fine! The people who have problems with it are people who bought things only because the items were popular at the time, or people who have fickle interests that keep changing, or people who bought the items as investments to resell, only to realize they can't even get their original money back, forget getting more. (*shrug*)

[figital]

thanks! that was a great assessment!
i agree on all the points you made.

in my work, i deal with very similar situations and sometimes it's very hard when other people don't get
what you've just written. for me, cels is just a bit of fun, so it's easy to not get too wild.

i always tried to buy things i wanted but could also afford. so when it come to cels, it's something i admire, but i won't just start throwing around hundreds of dollars for one piece when that same money well spent could find 10 decent pieces.

now if only the people selling the stuff i want come around to (y)our point of view

[cutiebunny]

I think it depends on what you collect because, in most cases, artwork from series with worldwide appeal has not only kept its value, but in many cases, has increased. Sailor Moon is a perfect example; Most fans enjoy the original more than Crystal, so there has been a noticeable increase in demand for good quality cels from the original series. Friends who collect Dragonball have also voice that prices have increased for many characters since Kai was released. So, I think it's more an issue of what you collect. If it's from a phenomenally popular series, your collection will largely retain its value. If you collected from other series that were not internationally well known, then, you'll stand to lose a lot of you attempt to resell.

On the whole, though, I think original artwork has retained its value as most people buy those sketches because they like the artist and what they worked on, so your prospective buyers are usually a fan of either, if not both, aspects. Occasionally, though, an artist will become involved in some sort of scandal, like drugs or "tracing". I recall, a couple years ago, one of the main artists for an eroge company called Key (they produced the Muv-Luv series) was found to have used pre-existing images drawn by other artists and modifying them for Muv-Luv characters. This is considered to be the biggest taboo in the industry, and Miyata was immediately fired from Key. I own a couple of sketches from him that I picked up prior to his downfall when he was at AX in 2010. I don't think these particular sketches are worth that much now, but then again, they were pretty cheap back then and I still enjoy them, so it's not a problem.

I agree that you should collect what you enjoy and not worry about possible resale value. Unless the artists that I collect from continue to make new works, their value will plummet.

[Kasi]

I feel the majority of my gallery I wouldn't be able to sell for close the price I paid, but that's ok with me because I bought each piece with the intention of keeping them, and paid top dollar in order to get them.
However I can think of one series I collect from that the cels once reached a price well above what I had paid for mine, simply because the supply ran out for years. The supply returned again recently, so there goes my financial back-up plan since the prices are now more normal

[Drac of the Sharp Smiles]

I agree it depends on what you collect and it also depends on WHAT you collected, even within amazingly popular series. This is where it being "worth" whatever someone is willing to pay for it comes into play. Some series, Sailor Moon being an excellent example, just seem undying. But that demand is usually sustained by keeping it in the front of people's minds with *new* things coming around, which was the other point I made. Taking Sailor Moon itself, the release of Crystal is keeping it in the front of everyone's mind right now and so it's not surprising that people are (for some, newly) after the cels from the original. That said, lesser cels from the series are still lesser cels from the series and sell that way, even if they're from Sailor Moon.

Though lesser known series will also almost always have pieces that are such amazing works of art that they can be appreciated for artistic value alone, I've often wondered how many people keep close track of exactly who is drawing what. Surely more art collectors do than general fans but, outside of a few people, I don't often hear people saying how amazing it was that they scored a sketch drawn by ___(artist's name here)___. However, I *do* hear people frequently going on about show, character, and scene.

Myself, I am utterly and completely incompetent at remembering names of anyone. (I mean it. Ask anyone who knows me IRL. It took me four months to remember the name of the girl I roomed next to in college. It's pathetic....) Because of that, names of artists are almost meaningless to me. However, I can look at a Miyu cel or Saiyuki sketch and almost always be able to tell you EXACTLY where it came from in the series. That's what happens when you collect primarily for scene. Which is why I love what Kasi said, because it's how I feel: "the majority of my gallery I wouldn't be able to sell for close the price I paid, but that's ok with me because I bought each piece with the intention of keeping them". That's pretty much my collecting habits in a nutshell. ^_^

[theultimatebrucelee]

Myself, I am utterly and completely incompetent at remembering names of anyone. (I mean it. Ask anyone who knows me IRL. It took me four months to remember the name of the girl I roomed next to in college. It's pathetic....) Because of that, names of artists are almost meaningless to me. However, I can look at a Miyu cel or Saiyuki sketch and almost always be able to tell you EXACTLY where it came from in the series. That's what happens when you collect primarily for scene.

That's a well made point about the price volatility in the production art market. And I also agree with your collecting principle since I also won't attempt to connect my art with people and will collect scenes, subsequently, character. Though I think valuing is a very complicated subject. I do find myself taking the past ending price into fair consideration when bidding on most things, I think many people will subconsciously find themselves doing that for most items. I'd also judge rather if I've gotten myself a good deal or bad deal based on the similar past prices. Though like you mentioned over the course of many years many people will have change of hearts, and prices will go up or down depending on bidders circumstances, economy is one and interest level over time is another...exchange rate level I believe is also very important, I think bidding on certain series has picked up from a few years ago actually, and certainly more proxy bidders...and cheap collectors with patience and time can always wait around, god forbid some big time collectors will pass on and leave their family not knowing what to do with those junk but just enough intelligence to put them out onto secondary market with BIN prices

[JWR]

Yes it is hard for some to realize that niche collecting (which anime cels & sketches is) can be very fluid. If a series is "hot" such as Inu Yasha was while it appeared on Cartoon Network prices can be high but later once the hype dies down collectors find that the bottom has dropped to the point where one can not come close to getting back what they paid for it. Because we won the auction means we were the one willing to spend the most for it. Other will not value it as much or else they would have bid more so years (or days )later it may be hard to find one to buy it or offer near what you think it should go for.

I never viewed my collecting as an investment for retirement. It is just a fun hobby we like. Now I do have items from past collecting that I know have increased in value such as watches & firearms(both have published price guides) that I could make back a lot more than I paid at the time. Comic art which I collect has increased in value mainly to each page or sketch is a "one off" and can be traced to the artist. Also sadly as those artists pass away the prices tend to skyrocket.

As far as the "weak" economy, currently the yen/dollar is in our favor so it helps our collecting. Now Figital, you need to get your Canadian economy fixed soon cause it's affecting the NHL salary cap

[figital]

i think the canadian economy is on it's way to being fixed with the new guy who just came in! fingers crossed, for the salary cap and for the eroding middle classes...

more good points were made in the thread as well...i think the biggest point was how active your show of choice is in the public eye. so shows that are constantly being re-booted can always draw new blood into their retro offerings. it was funny that point came up in the thread as my wife and i were talking about it and she mentioned INU YASHA as well. that was being shown on TV in canada for ages. same with things like SM and DBZ...as long as something new comes along, they can always count on a percentage of people really getting into it and going back and that being a gateway to collecting.

and the point about being able to spot your cel is a good one as well. i am working through RANMA with my son now and we've been on the watch to try and spot all the cels i have plus a few that are now on the way to me. (thanks van!)

and finally, it's always nice to see the grim spectre of death put in an appearance as well. haha! i have been slowly schooling my kids on the idea that i have a lot of stuff that could be worth a bit of money if something happens and i kick it. so i guess that is a decent foundation. no one in my house is going to toss any of my stuff in the trash. for them the trash will be the secondary market! LOL

[JustVan]

I would say many things, in fact probably even *most* things, do not retain their value or appreciate. I paid $24,000 for a car once and got about $6,000 for it 10 years later. Obviously I used it during that time, but I didn't expect it to go up in value. Sometimes things do maintain their value or go up in value, but on average I would say things don't, and that you shouldn't collect things as investments or with the expectations that it'll go up in value.

Does it suck? Yeah. It's especially a difficult pill to swallow because I did buy stuff in 2001 for 400 yen that I later sold for $200, or thereabouts. It's nice to think that that $300 cel I bought once upon a time will still be worth $300 in a few more years... but I also accept that it probably won't, and that's okay. I don't expect my couch to be worth the $500 I paid for it, either, or the shoes or clothes I spent money on. I get those aren't collectibles, but it's still a similar thought. This is something I bought to consume, and if I can resell it later that's great. If I can't then that's just how the market goes.

[ReiTheJelly]

I have bought low and sold high in the past, so I guess I don't have a *huge* problem with the idea that some of my pieces fall into the buy high/sell low category. It can be a little painful to realize that they're lost value, but I enjoy them, so I suppose they have decorative and emotional value to me. And there are still a few series/characters that I would pay through the nose for, so I recognize that prices haven't dropped on everything...

[Strictly-Dragonball]

Very interesting topic! I agree with all the points made as well. For me this hasn't been an issue as I've only collected DBZ and I'd say the market for that is pretty good as it's been kept in the public eye much like Sailor Moon for all these years. Prices are holding very well for nice DBZ cels!

Dragon Ball Super is currently airing in Japan and Toriyama has recently expanded the lore to the point he's just basically handed Toei buckets of money, as well as anyone who makes toys or video games. He's set the foundation for stories to be told around this series for the next 10 years even if he retires next year. So Dragon Ball isn't going anywhere and is still very popular.

2015 was one of the best years ever for the series, we got DB Xenoverse which was very well received by fans, a new movie and a new series, and I noticed last year in one of Mandarake's BWA some record prices. Even for pieces I wouldn't think were 'worth' that much.

The legendary shot or Goku facing Frieza just after going Super Saiyan went up and like the nicest cel of Bardock you could buy which sold for around the $7,000 mark! So good pieces are constantly being sold and re-introduced to the market.

Great time to be a DB fan!

[Strictly-Dragonball]

Also, I've had the chance to sell one piece of my collection which I paid a lot more than I probably should for a price even higher than what I paid. So DBZ is definitely holding value well.

[graymouser]

I guess I will chime in and agree that cel collecting is a hobby and not an investment. Although I was/am dimly aware of market prices, what was/is important to me is the fun I have working on rounding out my collection and owning another part of a show that I like. If the cel costs more than I think I would enjoy it, then I do not buy it. If I know that I would enjoy a cel immensely, I do not mind paying a lot for it, regardless of what the market says its value should be. If I bought a cel for $1K and enjoyed it for several years, I would not be disappointed if it sold for less. If I received $1K worth of enjoyment over the time I owned it, that is enough for me. Selling it later for anything greater than zero would just be gravy. BTW I realize that placing money on the amount of enjoyment I get out of a cel is very subjective. I guess I sort of compare it to how much fun I would have if I used the same amount of money for something else (vacation, remodeling, electronics, clothes, games, etc) instead.

The only exception would be when someone is making a unsolicited offer on my gallery. If I still enjoy the cel, I am very unlikely to sell. To even consider it, I would expect at least as much as I spent. Otherwise, I am perfectly happy to keep that little baby in my collection.

In either case, the decrease in market value does not particularly bother me. I am still having fun, and that is all that matters to me.