Current State of the Market

[Captain Haddock]

Hi all,

I've sort of been getting back into collecting recently with a couple of purchases, but am now taking the less is more philosophy and saving up to buy more expensive but to me more interesting pieces.

I am in the middle of trying to downsize my collection a little (see this link viewtopic.php?f=23&t=31208), partly becuase it's something I've been meaning to do and also because I need to recoup some money for a large purchase I've recently made.

As a test run I've put some Burn Up cels on ebay to gauge the market and ensure I've got my formula down before I stick some more expensive pieces on Ebay. The only problem now is one day in not one of them has yet sold, I'm not overly concerned yet it's still early days after all, but when I've stuck things up in previous years generally I've had bids straight away and most if not all of it ended up going. I'm just wondering is the market in general slower at the moment or is it just Burn Up isn't as popular as it was, and I'll be ok with other things?

[Angelic-Lair]

The market has... well... changed.

Best I can tell, a number of collectors stopped collecting and the collectors who replaced them may not collect the same things. What I mean is a show like Burn Up may not have many active collectors right now whereas a show like Dirty Pair Flash is getting a bit more competition than it has during the past 10 years. Bad for us DPF collectors... unless we decide to sell.

You might have had several Burn Up collectors competing against each other 5 or so years ago but if there's only one or two serious ones right now they can set the market prices, and that usually means low. Best example I can think of is Tenchi Muyo. Prices for that show TANKED over the past few years as less and less people collected from the show. Great for buying but not for selling.

All of this means that it's more important than ever to know the market (who's buying, what sells, etc.) when putting pieces up.

[Captain Haddock]

Hi Angelic-Lair,

Yeah it's what I feared, they're not ludicrously priced and below what I paid, so I'll just have to hope they shift. I'm well aware fashions/fads change, nothing sits still. Conversely I've had alot of offers on my NS and Akira cels over the last couple of years, some good ones to. Just a shame I've not been in the market to sell those as there the only things I now collect.

As I said I've got a number of other things I'm letting go of so hopefully all is not lost, unless everything I used to collect has now gone out of vogue!

[Animechaos]

This hobby was always a bit of a niche, but even more so now. (I really wanted those DPF OP cels for myself but noticed some SMJ users bidding on them, so I stayed out of it)

The move to CGI from Cels hurt, but I think it's the lack of available artwork for new shows that's really killing the hobby. I've been lucky and got my hands on a lot of newer stuff, most up at my gallery animechaos.com, but it's just so hard to come by. Watamote sketches anyone? I'm dying to get some of those but have yet to see a single one show up.

What's worse is that when some rare sketch does show up the price is really at a premium. So that immediately shuts out a lot of collectors. My best / worst example is this sketch set of Kurumi from Date A Live:

Going into that I thought...ok...$150.00....maybe $200.00. Next thing I know I'm up to $700.00 and kicking myself. But hey, was worth it in the end, awesome sketch.

But that's just what is killing the hobby. Cel collecting was always worse than a crack addiction...just no end to the collection. But $50.00 would usually get you some really nice cel. Now to get your fix it's costing multitudes of that and some folks just either stop collecting, or drop out altogether.

Add to that the fact that most cel collecting is motivated by nostalgia now seemingly more so than fandom. Prices for series that are less popular tanked bad and the old mainstays like Tenchi Muyo, El-Hazard, just about anything AIC, prices went down a lot. I've seen Lodoss War, AMG, Ranma 1/2, all just completely tank. I've seen Belldandy OVA cels go for over $3000.00 at it's height, and now a nice Hanken cel has trouble getting to 1/4 of that.

So basically....buy for yourself and don't ever expect a return later. I could be wrong, but that just seems where 99% of anime art goes.

[cutiebunny]

Some of the reason why new stuff doesn't come out is that they're worried that it will be reused by other studios. A couple years ago, I spoke with some muckety-muck from the US portion of Production IG. We hit it off well over a limited release movie IG was promoting, and liking background artwork, I asked her what happened to it. She mentioned that IG catalogs it in the event a series becomes popular for promotional usage. Production IG retains the artwork for four years, and at which point, they burn it. I don't know about other studios, but I would guess something similar is being done. Sometimes things do trickle on to the market, as I suspect that some animators use YJ sales as a way to supplement their income. While I get that douga/genga usually have a small audience, you'd think some of the backgrounds would be resold to help the studio recover costs. But, then again, there's no guarantee that the buyer who claims that they want the background to hang in their living room isn't really planning on using that in the next season of BanG Dream.

I had a museum in The Netherlands contact me a couple months ago, and they sent me links of things that they were interested in displaying. They didn't care about the odds and ends cels I had like Inuyasha, or the plethora of CCS or Kobato backgrounds I had. They wanted Sailor Moon and CCS cels. That was it. It was interesting also to see what they wanted. There were so many other cels that I thought were much more lovely than their selection, but it primarily centered on Sailor Moon herself and anytime one of her weapons was shown. While I knew that Sailor Moon, and to a lesser extent, CCS, would retain their value, it's interesting that among those cels, the popular images are the ones that everyone remembers, and often not the ones you might like best.

[GuyvarIII]

The move to CGI from Cels hurt, but I think it's the lack of available artwork for new shows that's really killing the hobby.

I like to think that if a whole bunch of Attack On Titan, a lot of One Punch Man, and a ton of Parasyte The Maxim hit the market, new collectors would flood into buying production art.
I believe it would make me a happier person.

However, if I look at Crunchyroll's popular list, the top anime is Naruto Shippuden, and you can find sketches from this show... so, I do wonder if it's not really that sketches are just a harder sell because they don't look as much like the scene in the show, and that newer anime fans just aren't looking for production art while older fans have moved on to other things.

[Captain Haddock]

Hi all,

Thanks for the various thoughts, which mostly seem to conform to what I was expecting really. That is: change to CGI leading to a lack of new artwork bringing in new collectors, and this coupled with a lot of our generation of cel collectors moving on and not being replaced for the former reason.

And yes AC I agree with your diagnosis that cel collecting has always been niche, I'd wager there are not more than a few hundred UK collectors in a population of 60+ million (even that may be an overestimate). You could extrapolate and say on those numbers there are a few thousand US collectors, but it's not big numbers by any means. Combined with the above will mean yup a much smaller market. Incidenally as a total aside I did buy a few pieces from your site when you were set up as a cel dealer, it's nice to see someone with an inside perspective posting on these boards.

Cutiebunny I thought studios by now would have realised the resale value, I'm shocked they're still in the 'destroy' frame of mind!

GuyverIII - I think your diagnosis is also correct, people just aren't as attracted to sketches as they are cels. I know this isn't true of all collectors and for instance some Akira or Ghibli genga/douga can go for absurd money if their by Otomo or Miyazaki. But that said I think bread and butter cel collecting would be less moribund if cels we're still being produced rather than just the sketches.

Well for me none have sold as yet, but there are 3 more days. There does seem to be quite a few views/watchers building behind a few of them however so I'm reasonably confident of a last few minute bids.

Anyway you can see what I've bought to prompt this round of selling on my part: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=31119

[cutiebunny]

Cutiebunny I thought studios by now would have realised the resale value, I'm shocked they're still in the 'destroy' frame of mind!

No, us collectors are really niche. Compare the amount of anime/manga art collectors worldwide, say 20K, to the total amount of anime/manga fans. I'd guess we're at least outnumbered 10 to 1.

I think the real reason is that it is far more profitable to sell mass produced artwork than it is to sell the originals. Sure, a nice Studio Ghibli Totoro set-up can fetch $20K+, but most art sells for less than $1K. When you think about the time and energy that goes into making a book that can be printed ad infinitum and sold for $50, what's really going to make the studio more money? I'm sure the production companies who have made the Fate and Monogatari series have made wads of cash by selling artbooks. They organize their best images and then the sakuga fans buy these books. These fans are convinced that the only way to see this artwork is to buy the book, and as the real stuff isn't making its way to auction sites, in a way, they're right. Many sakuga fans are not aware that you can buy the actual production artwork, and this is really the fault of mainstream websites that never promote this. And why would they - YJ sellers aren't paying ANN's bills, but Aniplex and their sales off of the latest $500 "Garden of Sinners" installment is. I've had this conversation with younger people at conventions. I've asked them if they know that they can buy artwork from Naruto, etc. and they all shake their heads. It's not well known that cels and sketches can be bought.

I also think that the younger generation, overall, doesn't have a need for a collection now. Many of them are struggling to pay back college debt and find jobs. If you're apartment bouncing every year or so, do you really want another useless thing to move? The permanence of titles has also greatly diminished. How many people remember K-ON? Haruhi Suzumiya? Whereas, 15 years ago, it was not uncommon for fans to love a series for years, most fans move on to different seasons after a season or two. Even if you remind them of these shows, they'll ask you why they should watch them when the same concept has been re-done and (in their opinion) is better in newer shows.

[Animechaos]

Makes me wonder why these companies don't use a 3rd party to sell their art then. Think of it this way, what if they could unload all the art onto a single dealer, and tell them to sell it keeping a certain percentage. All the work is taken off the studio, some money rolls in, and really no overhead.

If I could get some deals like that with a few studios I'd bring back AC as a dealer again, lol.

Not to mention, best thing about being a dealer....you get first pick of the stock.

[KinoLRB]

I've asked them if they know that they can buy artwork from Naruto, etc. and they all shake their heads. It's not well known that cels and sketches can be bought.

I've talked to a lot of younger fans, and none of them seem very interested in the artwork end of the anime production process. Many of the fans I've talked to had no idea what cels were either. Not to be negative, but part of the problem might stem from anime not being the artistic powerhouse it once was. Not that there aren't attractively animated newer films and shows, but nothing with the raw passion and prodigious imagination of classics such as Akira, Ninja Scroll, Ghost in the Shell, Memories, Robot Carnival...the list goes on. The style and energy of anime classics from the 80s, 90s, and even early-2000s inspired a lot of collectors in such a way that new anime, with their pale digital colors and bland character designs, simply can't.

[KinoLRB]

I've asked them if they know that they can buy artwork from Naruto, etc. and they all shake their heads. It's not well known that cels and sketches can be bought.

I've talked to a lot of younger fans, and none of them seem very interested in the artwork end of the anime production process. Many of the fans I've talked to had no idea what cels were either. Not to be negative, but part of the problem might stem from anime not being the artistic powerhouse it once was. Not that there aren't attractively animated newer films and shows, but nothing with the visual power and prodigious imagination of classics such as Akira, Ninja Scroll, Ghost in the Shell, Memories, Robot Carnival...the list goes on. The style and energy of anime classics from the 80s, 90s, and even early-2000s inspired a lot of collectors in such a way that new anime, with their pale digital colors and bland character designs, simply can't.

[KinoLRB]

I've asked them if they know that they can buy artwork from Naruto, etc. and they all shake their heads. It's not well known that cels and sketches can be bought.

I've talked to a lot of younger fans, and none of them seem very interested in the artwork end of the anime production process. Many of the fans I've talked to had no idea what cels were either. Not to be negative, but part of the problem might stem from anime not being the artistic powerhouse it once was. Not that there aren't attractively animated newer films and shows, but nothing with the visual power and prodigious imagination of classics such as Akira, Ninja Scroll, Ghost in the Shell, Memories, Robot Carnival...the list goes on. The style and energy of anime classics from the 80s, 90s, and even early-2000s inspired a lot of collectors in such a way that new anime, with their pale digital colors and bland character designs, simply can't.


Sorry for the double post

[theultimatebrucelee]

Even if you remind them of these shows, they'll ask you why they should watch them when the same concept has been re-done and (in their opinion) is better in newer shows.

This is quite a valid point, Depending on what you look for the most in anime, the evolvement of many components are toward a position direction. (ex. plot-twist). My personal golden era for anime is between 2004-2014, which outdated the younger anime fans, but by far majority artwork for sale on the market precedes that era. If the availability dries up alongside of collector's interest, then whats left when old collectors move on without replacement? The other thing I seem to observe is that on certain series, a few people set the price for only certain pieces they deem worthy, which creates inconsistent market value for series overall or even particular character.

[cutiebunny]

I've talked to a lot of younger fans, and none of them seem very interested in the artwork end of the anime production process. Many of the fans I've talked to had no idea what cels were either. Not to be negative, but part of the problem might stem from anime not being the artistic powerhouse it once was. Not that there aren't attractively animated newer films and shows, but nothing with the raw passion and prodigious imagination of classics such as Akira, Ninja Scroll, Ghost in the Shell, Memories, Robot Carnival...the list goes on. The style and energy of anime classics from the 80s, 90s, and even early-2000s inspired a lot of collectors in such a way that new anime, with their pale digital colors and bland character designs, simply can't.

Artistic powerhouses are sort of neglected now too, even though they exist. There's just so much anime being released every season that, even if a series turned out to be an artistic phenomena, by the time that last episode airs, viewers might only savor it for less than a week before they're bombarded with 90 new titles from the next season. You could argue that Sushio's work in Kill la Kill, while rough, was full of ideas and interesting angles that you really didn't see in any previous series. Three years after the series aired, how many fans really want to buy Mako & Ryuuko merchandise anymore? But regarding why young people aren't interested in owning the artwork anymore, I assume that's because smartphones make it easy to store and promote lots of images. You can take a high res screenshot, for free, off most streaming platforms, or simply take the picture from social media sites and then, within a matter of seconds, repost that elsewhere to gain the admiration from others who share your same interests. It's easier to tote around, show to friends, and with the right software, you can tinker with it to make it what you want it to be. The appeal of things like trading cards, once a staple for many anime series in the 1980s & 1990s, has been replaced by the smartphone.

Maybe it's just that fuddy-duddy side of me talking, but I suspect that the more involved society becomes with technology, the more its older members are going to want to hold on to relics of their past. Those old iPhone 3s aren't going to even turn on in 20 years. People are going to want tangible reminders of their past, and that's when you'll see people longing to hold on to some sort of memorabilia from a very popular series. The only question is, will much of it exist then if no one collects it now? Either way, though I probably won't live to see it, it'll be interesting to see how art museums present this era to future inhabitants. Will they be interested in displaying or able to preserve physical artwork or will they instead opt to show digital examples?

[Captain Haddock]

Hi all thanks for your various contributions, it's good that I seem to have started a good discussion amoungst people.

If you're all interested half of them went at starting cost, which is fine with me as I just wanted them to shift. I've now relisted those that didn't sell and put up a several more from DNA2 and Iria, which are as you might expect are generating more interest. No bids as yet, but a lot more views/watchers.

Glad I had the sense to do it piece by piece, I forgot how much work it is prepping them for postage!